Investment StrategyJanuary 1, 20193 min read

Expo 2020 Is Close: Hope and Realism for 2019

With the Expo less than two years away, optimism is growing, but supply remains high. A balanced view of the year ahead for Dubai property.

Victoria Sterling

Head of Private Clients

Specializing in family office advisory and multi-generational wealth transfer. Victoria manages relationships with 50+ UHNW families across 15 countries.

With Expo 2020 less than two years away, optimism about Dubai's future is growing. The site is rising, infrastructure is nearing completion and the city is preparing to welcome millions of visitors. In the property market, however, the picture is more mixed: prices and rents have eased for several years, and a large number of homes are due for completion.

Reasons for optimism

Expo 2020: visitors, jobs and global attention.
Residency reforms: longer-term visas announced for investors and professionals.
Value: prices well below previous peaks.
Infrastructure: new transport and amenities.

Reasons for realism

New supply continues to outpace demand in some areas, and rents are under pressure. The Expo will boost activity, but it will not by itself absorb all the new homes.

What to expect

We expect continued buyer's market conditions in many segments, with stronger demand for quality, completed homes in established communities.

Opportunities

Buyers can negotiate well, choose from a wide selection and take advantage of flexible payment plans.

Strategy

Focus on quality, location and long-term income. Avoid buying solely on Expo expectations.

The supply committee

Recognising the effects of oversupply, the authorities are moving to coordinate future development more closely. A higher committee is being set up to review the timing and volume of new projects, with the aim of balancing supply and demand. Its decisions could slow the pace of launches by government-linked developers and encourage the completion of existing projects before new ones begin. For the market, better coordination would be a welcome step towards stability. It will not immediately absorb the homes already under construction, but over time it could reduce the boom-and-bust pattern that has affected Dubai in past cycles. Investors should follow its announcements closely.