Dubai's Expo 2020 Bid: What a Win Would Mean

Dubai's bid to host World Expo 2020 is now one of the most talked-about topics in the city. The decision will be made by member states of the Bureau International des Expositions in November, and Dubai is competing against other cities. Whatever the outcome, the bid is already shaping how investors think about the next decade.

What hosting would bring

• Visitors: millions of people over six months.
• Investment: new infrastructure, transport and hotels.
• Jobs: employment in construction, hospitality and services.
• Global profile: the first World Expo in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia region.

The proposed site

The Expo site is planned near Jebel Ali, close to Al Maktoum International Airport and between Dubai and Abu Dhabi. That location would draw attention to the southern parts of the city, including Dubai South and nearby communities.

Effects on sentiment

Even before the decision, the bid is encouraging optimism. Some buyers are already looking at areas that might benefit. This optimism should be treated with care: a bid is not a win.

If Dubai wins

A win would likely accelerate investment in infrastructure and tourism and support demand for homes and hotels over the following years. Areas near the site and along transport routes would attract particular interest.

If Dubai does not win

The city's fundamentals, tourism, aviation, trade and its role as a regional hub, would remain. Investors should ensure their decisions make sense without the Expo.

The southern corridor before the decision

The proposed Expo site lies in an area that is still largely undeveloped, between Jebel Ali, Al Maktoum International Airport and the communities of Dubai South. Some residential projects already exist nearby, including Discovery Gardens, The Gardens and Jumeirah Golf Estates, but much of the surrounding land is earmarked for future development. If the bid succeeds, transport links, utilities and services in this corridor are likely to be accelerated. If it does not, development will still continue, though perhaps more slowly. Investors interested in the area should distinguish between established communities with existing demand and land or projects whose value depends heavily on future events. The former offer income today; the latter offer potential but carry more risk.

Our view

We support Dubai's bid and believe hosting would be a major boost. We advise clients to buy on fundamentals and treat a possible Expo win as a potential bonus rather than the basis of an investment.