After a Record 2023, What Next for Dubai?
    Price TrendsJanuary 1, 20243 min read

    After a Record 2023, What Next for Dubai?

    2023 set new records for transactions and values. Our outlook for 2024: where demand stays strong, where supply arrives and how to stay disciplined.

    Regional Director, MENA

    20-year veteran of Dubai's property market. Ahmed was instrumental in the development of Palm Jumeirah and Downtown Dubai's residential strategy.

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    Dubai's property market closed 2023 with another record year. The number and value of transactions surpassed the levels of 2022, prices rose in most communities and off-plan launches sold quickly. As 2024 begins, the market is strong, but buyers and investors are asking how long the momentum can last.

    What drove 2023

    • Population growth: continued arrivals of residents and businesses.
    • International buyers: strong demand from many countries.
    • Off-plan: a large share of transactions.
    • Prime segment: record numbers of high-value sales.

    The outlook for 2024

    We expect demand to remain healthy, supported by population growth and Dubai's appeal to international residents. Price growth is likely to moderate in segments where supply is increasing.

    Supply arriving

    Homes launched in 2021 and 2022 will begin completing over the next two to three years. Areas with heavy completions may see slower rent and price growth.

    Interest rates

    Rates remain elevated, though markets expect them to ease at some point. Lower rates would support mortgage-financed buyers.

    Staying disciplined

    Buyers should compare prices with recent sales, check future supply around their chosen area and avoid paying for momentum rather than value.

    Questions to ask before buying in 2024

    A strong market makes it easy to feel that any purchase will work out, but a few questions help separate good decisions from risky ones. How does the asking price compare with recent sales in the same building, not just the area? What rent can the property realistically achieve, and how many similar homes will complete nearby in the next two years? Would the purchase still make sense if prices were flat for five years? Can the payments be met comfortably if rates stay high or income falls? Is the developer or seller reliable, and is the documentation complete? Buyers who answer these questions honestly tend to buy well in any phase of the cycle, and they are rarely forced to sell at the wrong time.

    Our view

    Dubai's market is strong and its long-term story intact. In 2024, careful selection will matter more than ever. We help clients choose properties with lasting fundamentals.

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