Dubai Property in 2020: The Expo Year Begins
    Luxury LivingJanuary 1, 20203 min read

    Dubai Property in 2020: The Expo Year Begins

    The year of Expo 2020 has arrived. What the event could mean for the market, the supply challenge that remains and the risks to keep in view.

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Former Goldman Sachs MD with 25 years in global real estate. James has advised sovereign wealth funds and ultra-high-net-worth families on $50B+ in transactions across MENA, Europe, and Asia.

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    The year Dubai has been preparing for since 2013 has arrived. Expo 2020 opens in October, and the city is finishing the infrastructure, hotels and venues that will welcome visitors from around the world. For the property market, which has adjusted for more than five years, the question is whether the Expo year can mark a turning point.

    What the Expo could bring

    • Visitors: millions expected over six months.
    • Jobs: temporary and permanent roles in hospitality, events and services.
    • Attention: global media coverage of the city.
    • Legacy: a new district on the Expo site after the event.

    The supply challenge

    A large number of homes are still due for completion. Authorities have set up a committee to better balance future supply with demand, but the effects will take time.

    Signs of stabilisation

    Transactions rose towards the end of last year, prices in some established communities have levelled off and long-term visas are encouraging residents to buy.

    Risks to watch

    Global economic uncertainty, regional tensions and the pace of new completions could all affect the market. Any disruption to travel or tourism would also matter for a city that depends on visitors.

    Strategy for 2020

    Buyers should continue to focus on quality, completed homes and strong developers. The Expo should be seen as a support, not a guarantee.

    Expo and the hospitality pipeline

    Hotels have been preparing for Expo 2020 for years, and many new properties are opening across the city. This increases capacity for visitors but also competition among hotels, hotel apartments and holiday homes. During the Expo months, demand is expected to be strong, particularly near the site and in central tourist areas. After the event, the larger hotel stock will need continued tourism growth to maintain occupancy. Investors in hotel apartments and holiday homes should consider how their property will perform both during and after the Expo, rather than basing expectations on six months of peak demand. Properties in established tourist locations are likely to be most resilient.

    Our view

    2020 begins with cautious optimism. We expect a gradual improvement in sentiment and help clients find value in a market that still favours buyers.

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